Market Outlook

The steep overnight decline in crude prices plus encouraging prospects for improved disposable income and reduced electricity rates are seen to support positioning in local shares.

Local shares might trend sideways, as fund managers assess turnover support on intraday rallies.

The PSEi declined 1.03% w/w to 6,072.24 (-63.11 pts), crossing below the 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs) and is now poised to break below the 20-day and 50-day MAs, indicating short-term weakness.

The local bourse continues to move sideways with an RSI of 55.96 indicating a bullish momentum.

Expected positioning may prevail, as investors check on trading windows in select stocks.

Eyes are set whether the PSEi can retain its poise above the 6,000 mark, on volatile headlines on US-Iran negotiations.

With the Strait of Hormuz closed anew, movements might turn sideways for most part of the week, as buyers check on supply presence on intra-day ascents.

Supply pressure might still be felt, following Pres. Trump’s latest comments that the MoU with Iran isn’t final yet.

Possible similar trend from yesterday’s session is seen, as some investors seize on intra-day rises to cash-out, pending FOMC and BSP’s official policy guidance.

Follow-through response from yesterday’s upward thrust is seen, with headlines centered on US-Iran’s Geneva signing agreement.

The market might benefit from late response to Wall Street’s overnight ascent (Thursday & Friday), as hopes resurrect for US-Iran accord to end their rift.

Sentiment might glide to US equities’ overnight weakness, with renewed USIran geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Investors may get feelers whether supply pressure might still prevail, given expectations for an off-cycle (50bps) jumbo rate hike from the central bank to address inflation & volatility at the peso-dollar market.

The local bourse continues to remain thin as the RSI sits at 48.25 in a neutral position.

Participants would likely weigh if the market has already priced-in May’s inflation announcement (due today), versus the latest decline in crude futures prices following a USmediated Israel-Lebanon ceasefire arrangement.