{"id":332826,"date":"2025-06-11T00:47:45","date_gmt":"2025-06-10T16:47:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/?p=332826"},"modified":"2025-06-11T01:07:28","modified_gmt":"2025-06-10T17:07:28","slug":"commentary-inflation-eases-to-new-lows","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/commentary-inflation-eases-to-new-lows\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentary: Inflation eases to new lows"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>May 2025 inflation prints within expectations at +1.3%<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Inflation in May eased to +1.3% year-on-year (YoY), in-line with market expectations and marking the fourth consecutive month of decline in the consumer price index (CPI). Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, remained at +2.2% for the third month in a row. Food inflation was unchanged MoM at 0.7%, as the 12.8% YoY decline in rice price levels from last year\u2019s high base was somewhat offset by faster increases in the price of meat, fish, and dairy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels (HWEGO) saw a more moderate increase of 2.3% YoY vs 2.9% the previous month, primarily due to a higher base for electricity prices last year. Lower transport prices also contributed to the slower inflation, with YoY price declines in the Transport index accelerating to 2.4% from 2.1% in April on the back of lower pump prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Base case scenario of two rate cuts totaling 50bps<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We are now seeing definite signs that price pressures are easing and inflation is firmly within the BSP\u2019s target range. This provides the BSP with more flexibility to cut rates further this year and support economic growth amidst a rapidly shifting global economic landscape. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>However, we have low conviction that the Monetary Board will cut rates when they meet on June 19 and we see a higher likelihood of a cut in August followed by another in December. We currently have a base case scenario of TWO rate cuts totaling 50bps for the remainder of the year, and a less likely bull case scenario of THREE rate cuts totaling 75bps.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:26px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p style=\"font-size:16px\"><em><em>This report is prepared by PinoyInvestor\u2019s partner broker below. Find out more about <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/our-partner-brokers\/\">our partner brokers<\/a> and sign up to avail their complete trading brokerage services.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Here\u2019s a commentary on an important issue or event affecting the stock market<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1124,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-332826","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentaries-special-reports","category-special-reports","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332826","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/11"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=332826"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332826\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":332828,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/332826\/revisions\/332828"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=332826"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=332826"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=332826"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}