The estimated total telco subscribers in the Philippines is around 135.5 Million as of year-end (YE) 2024, up 9.4% year-on-year (YoY), based on GLO\u2019s actual subscriber count and forecasts for TEL and DITO. This persistent growth in the mobile market despite macroeconomic headwinds underpins our BUY rating on GLO and TEL, as we see mobile subscriber and revenue growth to likewise persist as smartphone affordability increases mobile data penetration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Globe Telecom, Inc. (GLO) \u2013 Buy, Target Price of P2,689.32<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n PLDT Inc. (TEL) \u2013 Buy, Target Price of P1,618.62 The last quarter of 2024 was marked with a weak peso, which reached P59 against the US dollar, and 6 consecutive typhoons between late October and mid-November, which led to an uptick in headline inflation numbers. As a result, Filipino consumers cut unnecessary expenses to provide leeway for essentials needs, as evidenced by the weaker-than-expected consumer spending for the quarter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite these headwinds, the Philippine smartphone market still ended the year higher by +6% YoY at 17.9-Million units, according to data from International Data Corp.\u2019s (IDC) report. IDC attributed this growth to the availability of more entry-level models, with half of the smartphones shipped to the Philippines being priced under $100. This also led to the decline of smartphone\u2019s average unit cost to $179 in YE 2024 from $192 in YE 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The modest, albeit persistent, growth in the Philippine smartphone market underpinned GLO\u2019s mobile revenue growth, with the telco reporting a new record high of P116.7-Billion in mobile revenues in 2024, surpassing the previous high of P112.4-Billion. Mobile subscribers also expanded by +7% YoY to 60.9-Mn from 57.0- TEL\u2019s mobile metrics and our 2024 forecasts<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n TEL reported a slightly weaker growth in mobile subscribers in 9-months (9M) 2024, with the telco reporting 60.3-Mn subscribers as of end-September vs 57.8-Mn as of YE 2023. We expect TEL to have ended 2024 forecasts with 60.6-Mn mobile subscribers and for their mobile revenues to increase by +4.1% YoY to P98.9-Bn from P95.0-Bn the previous year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n DITO\u2019s 2024 guidance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n On the other hand, DITO expects its YE 3024 topline rising by +50% YoY, and growing subscriber count to 14.0-Mn subscribers from 9.0-Mn subscribers the previous year. The goal of DITO is to have at least a 30% market share and we expect DITO to aggressively ramp up its subscriber acquisition efforts in the coming years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
<\/strong>
DITO CME Holdings Corp. (DITO) \u2013 Unrated<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nHigher smartphone sales in 2024<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
GLO saw mobile revenue growth<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Mn in 2023, despite an increasingly competitive market landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n