Last week, the main index slipped by 0.88% week-on-week to close at 6,296.20, as concerns over potential GDP growth shortfall dampened sentiment. Trading turnover remained subdued, with foreign net selling and negative market breadth reflecting cautious sentiment amid global uncertainties and local economic headwinds. On the global front, market optimism followed the inauguration of the new US President Trump, particularly due to his initial statements advocating for less-than-expected tariffs on China to ease trade tensions. However, this did not resonate locally, as National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) Secretary Balisacan cautioned that 4Q 2024 GDP growth might fall short of expectations, citing typhoon-induced agricultural damage and operational disruptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This week, we anticipate some relief for the local bourse following three consecutive weeks of losses, as the market looks for direction amid lingering risk-off sentiment. Trump\u2019s more amicable approach to China in terms of tariffs could help ease global trade tensions and bolster investor confidence, potentially shifting sentiment towards a risk-on stance. Meanwhile, local investors may have already priced in the potential GDP miss, with 2024 growth expected at 5.8% (vs. 2023’s 5.5%), falling below the government\u2019s target of 6.0% to 6.5%. Moreover, the Federal Open Market Committee\u2019s (FOMC) anticipated decision to hold rates in its first policy meeting on 30 Jan 2025, could influence the direction locally. Finally, trading activity is likely to pick up following the Philippine Stock Exchange\u2019s (PSE) announcement of changes to the main index, with CBC and AREIT being added while WLCON and NIKL are set to be excluded, effective 03 Feb 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Recommendation<\/strong><\/td>| Buy on support<\/td><\/tr> | 1-Year Target Price<\/strong><\/td> | PHP 16.20<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n | <\/div>\n\n\n\n EMI is consolidating between PHP17.85-PHP18.20, currently trading above 20-day and 50-day moving averages (MAs) but below 100-day and 200-day MA signaling a short-term upward momentum of the stock, but the long-term trend remains bearish. The MACD is slightly above the signal line, while the RSI rose from the oversold territory, indicating a potential recovery of the stock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Accumulating EMI around support level at 17.85 is advisable. Take profits at PHP20.53 and set stop-loss limits at PHP16.42.<\/p>\n\n\n\n <\/div>\n\n\n\n 2. Universal Robina Corp. (URC)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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