{"id":329332,"date":"2024-09-05T13:09:53","date_gmt":"2024-09-05T05:09:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/?p=329332"},"modified":"2024-09-05T13:09:55","modified_gmt":"2024-09-05T05:09:55","slug":"free-commentary-lower-rice-prices-could-help-tame-inflation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/free-commentary-lower-rice-prices-could-help-tame-inflation\/","title":{"rendered":"FREE Commentary: Lower rice prices could help tame inflation"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

NOTE: This is a Premium-exclusive stock report, originally for our Premium Access members, but we’re giving this to you free! To view other FREE stock reports<\/strong><\/a>, just click here. To get full access to all Premium-exclusive reports, simply upgrade to Premium Access<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>today for as low as P399.00 a month!<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The Department of Agriculture (DA) expects the retail price of rice to fall to P45\/kg from the current level of P47-55\/kg with the arrival of more imported rice (covered by the lower tariff rate) in the coming months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pick up in rice imports (after the government cut the tariff rate) coupled with the steady local production of palay this year are expected to result in a P6-7\/kg cut in local retail prices of rice, this as per the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The country has imported some 2.3mn metric tons of rice already as of mid-2024 and the DA is targeting to import a total of 4.7mn metric tons this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our View<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Rice accounts for 8.9% of the local consumer price index (CPI) basket. Lower inflation leads to increased consumer spending, which then boosts overall market sentiment. Thus, the lowering of rice prices has a huge impact on inflation expectations and subsequently, rate policy outlook. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

We expect inflation to start cooling off and hit the lower band of the BSP\u2019s target range of 2%-4% starting this month. We forecast August inflation to slow down to 3.7% vs. July\u2019s 4.4% to be driven by lower food and fuel prices. Our 2024 inflation forecast is at 3.1% for 2024 and 2.6% for 2025. And we expect the BSP to cut its rate by another 25bps (0.25%) before end-2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We reiterate our upgraded index target of 7,500 for the year backed by 12.4% earnings per share (EPS) growth. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our top picks consist of quality names with cyclical recovery themes: SM, MBT, JFC, ALI, ICT, AP and MWC.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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NOTE: This is a Premium-exclusive stock report, originally for our Premium Access members, but we’re giving this to you free! To view other FREE stock reports<\/strong><\/a>, just click here. To get full access to all Premium-exclusive reports, simply upgrade to Premium Access<\/strong><\/a>\u00a0<\/span>today for as low as P399.00 a month!<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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This report is prepared by PinoyInvestor\u2019s partner broker below. Find out more about our partner brokers<\/a> and sign up to avail their complete trading brokerage services.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s a commentary on an important issue or event affecting the stock market<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1236],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-329332","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-free-reports","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329332","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=329332"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329332\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":329334,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/329332\/revisions\/329334"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=329332"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=329332"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=329332"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}