{"id":327388,"date":"2024-04-05T02:11:22","date_gmt":"2024-04-04T18:11:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/?p=327388"},"modified":"2024-09-01T22:32:35","modified_gmt":"2024-09-01T14:32:35","slug":"commentary-rising-oil-prices-a-near-term-threat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/commentary-rising-oil-prices-a-near-term-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Commentary: Rising oil prices, a near-term threat"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Global oil prices are creeping up again due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. This poses upside risk to inflation and dampens consumer sentiment. The Philippines is a net importer of oil. With gas and fuel accounting for 12.5% of the CPI basket while transport another 7%, the impact on consumption (70% of GDP) will be felt<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As observed in the previous oil price spike in 2022, a US$10\/bbl hike in oil prices tend to cut GDP by between 0.7-1.5 ppts and pushes inflation higher by 0.6-0.7 ppts. However, we don\u2019t expect the rise this time to be as large as before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bloomberg Consensus projects that Brent would average $83 per barrel in 2024, $80 per barrel in 2025 and 2026. The neutral-bearish view is due to an expected wave of new supply from the Americas and the partial unwinding of the OPEC+ cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Impact on sectors and companies<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Consumer firms and Airlines are the most sensitive as higher oil prices translate to higher costs and weaker demand. Within the consumer space, DNL is least affected given its cost-plus pricing policy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are Neutral on Power firms like AP, SCC, MER and FGEN given the fuel-pass through provisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Also, we’re currently Neutral on Banks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n

This report is prepared by PinoyInvestor\u2019s partner broker below. Find out more about our partner brokers<\/a> and sign up to avail their complete trading brokerage services.<\/em><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Here\u2019s a commentary on an important issue or event affecting the stock market<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1124,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-327388","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-commentaries-special-reports","category-special-reports","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-33"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327388","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/6"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=327388"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327388\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":327390,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/327388\/revisions\/327390"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=327388"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=327388"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.pinoyinvestor.com\/smartinvestor\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=327388"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}