China\u2019s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the Chinese economy grew by 5.2% in the fourth quarter, slightly missing estimates of 5.3%. This marked one of the slowest non-pandemic 4th quarter (Q4) GDP growth since 1999, as China struggles with its ongoing property crisis that has seen trillions of yuan worth of value wiped from its property market. However, full-year GDP growth came within expectations at 5.2% and slightly beat the government\u2019s conservative target of around 5.0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Fixed asset investment grew by a modest 3.0%, slightly better than consensus estimates of 2.9%, with the 9.6% drop in real estate investments offset by growth in investments in infrastructure (+5.9%) and manufacturing (+6.5%). Growth in consumption also came in slightly slower than expected, with retail sales growing by 7.4% and missing the 8.0% growth expected by most economists. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
There was some upside surprise in industrial production, which went up by 6.8% YoY in Q4, a beat on the 6.6% consensus forecast. Industrial output was bolstered by new-energy vehicle manufacturing (+43.7% YoY) and chip production (+34.0% YoY). Loans data points to further expansion in the industrial space as lending to industrial companies continue its upward trend following Trump’s Trade War.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Despite geopolitical tensions in the West Philippine Sea, China remains as one of the Philippines\u2019 biggest trading partners and as such, the state of their economy will send ripples all the way to our shores. The Asian giant is still one of our top buyers of agricultural products, as well as industrial metals and other commodities. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In particular, the emergence of electric vehicles (EV) and high-tech manufacturing as substitutes for property development as economic drivers would bode well for copper concentrate and refined nickel exporters from the Philippines. The restoration of consumer confidence in China could also bode well for our tourism industry, if we would be able to attract Chinese tourist back to our shores.<\/p>\n\n\n\n