The country’s gross external trade for October contracted by 9.8% year-on-year, totaling $16.9 billion compared to $18.74 billion in the same period last year. Experiencing a significant annual decline of 17.5%, total exports amounted to $6.36 billion, leading to a year-to-date cumulative decline of 7.8%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key contributors to then drop in exports included electronic products, copper concentrates, coconut oil, gold, and miscellaneous manufactured articles. Meanwhile, imports for October also decreased by 4.4% to $10.54 billion, resulting in a year-to-date annual total import value decline of 9.6%. Notably, electronic products registered the highest annual decline in import value. The more pronounced decline in exports compared to imports widened the trade deficit by 26% year-on-year to $4.17 billion. It also surpassed the previous month’s deficit of $3.583 billion by 16.5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our View: <\/strong>The October export data fell below market expectations and this resulted to a wider deficit than anticipated. This highlights the persistence of short-term challenges in global demand for goods and services, evident not only in our external trade figures but also in the recent lackluster foreign direct investments. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Looking ahead, exporters cautiously suggest a potential turnaround in the semiconductor industry by year-end, with some optimists predicting a global resurgence in electronics sales surpassing the 2022 peak. Optimism is anchored on expectations of demand resilience in the US market and a potential recovery in China by the latter half of 2024. However, concrete evidence remains paramount. The A rebound in exports would be a significant boost for the economy, considering it constitutes around a quarter of the country’s GDP. Furthermore, this recovery is poised to have a positive ripple effect on the manufacturing sector, given that 81.5% of exports are comprised of manufactured goods.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
most plausible recovery scenario is expected in the second half of the coming year, particularly as interest rates start to decline. <\/p>\n\n\n\n