The Philippines is expected to end the 2023-2024 crop year with a lower sugar stock than earlier projections. The sugar crop year 2023 started on September 1, 2023, and will end on August 31, 2024. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported the expected sugar stock to be 1.322 million metric tons, down from the May projection of 1.358 million MT. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Sugar production in the Philippines is forecasted to be 1.8 million MT for the year, slightly lower than the earlier estimate of 1.9 million MT. This marks the second consecutive year of flat sugar production in the country. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The decrease in sugar stock is due to higher domestic consumption. The Philippine Sugar Regulatory Administration (SRA) issued Sugar Order No. 1 in September. The order allocated all sugar production to domestic use, with zero exports anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our View:<\/strong> Global sugar production has been declining for major exporting countries like India and Thailand. Thailand is projected to have a 30% drop in sugar production, India is not exporting sugar this year and may import close to a million tons for domestic use. Brazil is considering using excess sugar for fuel or energy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Moving forward, the SRA is looking at a 10 to 15% drop in production due to the threat of the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon. However, the decision to allocate all production for domestic consumption will shield the Philippines from another potential inflationary concern. Domestic farm gate prices have been stable despite the sharp 39% year on year increase in world sugar prices.<\/p>\n\n\n\n