The aggregate rice stocks inventory as of October 1, 2023 stood at an estimated 2.04 million metric tons, a 1.9% decline compared to the 2.08 million metric tons recorded in the same period last year. Month-on-month, the volume of rice stocks inventory experienced a sharp increase of 32.1% from the preceding month’s inventory of 1.55 million metric tons. Rice stocks in the National Food Authority (NFA) depositories and the household sector witnessed annual decreases of 60.2% and 21.7%, respectively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Conversely, rice stocks in the commercial sector saw a 35.4% rise during the month compared to October 2022. Relative to September 2023 levels, month-on-month increases were observed in rice stocks inventories in the household sector (52.9%), commercial sector (19.8%), and NFA depositories (1.4%). Notably, the commercial sector contributed 52.9% to the total rice stocks for the month, followed by households at 44.9%, and NFA depositories at 2.2%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Our View: <\/strong>The October inventory level has exceeded expectations, surpassing the initial forecast of 1.9 million metric tons or 74 days of consumption. The current inventory level stands at approximately 80 days, which is just 14 days short of the Department of Agriculture’s target inventory level of 94 days. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This positive development is anticipated to alleviate inflationary pressures, especially during the holiday season when rice prices tend to increase due to heightened demand. Despite having reached the peak of the current palay harvest season, the supply situation is expected to improve through increased importations. This augmentation will act as a safeguard against potential price hikes, contributing to a more stable market during the festive period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n