August nonfarm jobs data meets estimates, June and July revised lower<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the US economy added 187,000 nonfarm jobs in August, only slightly ahead the 170,000 expected by most economists and well below the 12-month average of 271,000. At the same time, previous releases were revised sharply lower, with the June jobs report slashed by 80,000 from 185,000 to 105,000 while the July data was trimmed by 30,000 from 187,000 to 137,000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Unemployment up, wage growth down<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The unemployment rate jumped to an 18-month high of 3.8% as labor force participation rose to 62.8%, its highest since the start of the pandemic. A separate measure which includes discouraged workers and part-timers put the unemployment rate at 7.1%, 40 bps higher than the previous month. Average hourly earnings also increased a slower pace of 0.2% month-on-month (MoM) and 4.3% year-on-year (YoY), which are both below the forecasts of 0.3% and 4.4% respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Not-so-bad news is good news<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The weakening in the US jobs market may be just enough to encourage Powell and the Fed to declare a ceasefire in its war on inflation, but not enough to cause concerns of an impending recession. A continuation of this weak-but-not-too-bad data could convince the Fed that the US economy has reached the Goldilocks Zone and hold off on further rate hikes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n This would also be a boon to the Philippine Peso, which has been under pressure as the market prices in another Fed rate hike in contrast to the BSP\u2019s reluctance to hike rates as the domestic economy also shows signs of slowing. A more stable peso could provide much-needed support to the local stock market, which is struggling to find its footing in the midst of multiple domestic and global headwinds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n