Polysilicon prices in freefall<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The price of solar-grade polysilicon, a key component in the production of solar (PV) panels, is now only $8.44\/kg, down 63.6% year-to-down (YTD) and down 78.0% from its peak in 3Q 2022. The plunge in polysilicon prices is mainly due to a supply glut following China\u2019s massive expansion in production, which saw it grow its market share of the global polysilicon market from 55% in 2017 to its current 89%. An ongoing expansion wave in China\u2019s polysilicon sector is forecasted to further increase its global market share to above 90% this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n A global race to capture the sun<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The price of solar PV modules is likewise down 16.7% YTD at $0.20\/W, and down 28.6% from its peak in 4Q 2021, as production ramps up around the world. China, the United States, the European Union, and India have all announced plans to expand production of solar PV modules as a means ensure energy security amidst global price and supply shocks. Again, China is leading the charge, with plans to expand module manufacturing capacity to 900 GW\/year by the end of 2024, while the U.S. is targeting to ramp up production to 40 GW\/year within the same timeframe. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that global solar PV module annual production capacity could reach 1,121 GW by 2024, outpacing the expected demand of 304 GW for that year. Given this supply glut and cheaper prices of raw materials, Australian think tank Climate Energy Finance estimates that the price of solar PV modules could fall by 10% annually until 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Renewables are now cheaper than fossil fuels<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n On top of the lower cost of PV modules, technological advances have also lowered solar\u2019s levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which is a measure that calculates the present value of the total cost of building and operating a power plant over an assumed lifetime. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) estimates, solar now costs only $44\/MWh to build and operate, making it cheaper than traditional fossil fuel power plants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Should be good for PH renewable energy (RE) companies, but local challenges remain<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Cheap solar should be beneficial for locally-listed renewable energy (RE) companies, especially those that specialize in solar like ASLAG and SPNEC. <\/p>\n\n\n\n However, they face unique challenges in the Philippine setting such as the shortage of large tracts of contiguous land needed for large-scale solar farms, barriers to land conversion from agricultural to industrial, and challenges in securing the often remotely located facility\u2019s connectivity to the national grid. Unless those issues are addressed, solar energy production in the Philippines could remain restricted to rooftop installations and small to mid-sized commercial-scale operations with a few exceptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Missed opportunity for ACEN<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n As for ACEN, this could be a missed opportunity with regards to their almost completed giant project in Australia as well as the upcoming solar projects for which they have already secured supply contracts. However, it would be a great benefit to their very long pipeline of projects in development as the company works towards its stated goal of 20GW by 2030.<\/p>\n\n\n\n